Indicators of Vested Success

in steem •  6 months ago 

On Steemd.com there are some little numbers to keep an eye on over the coming months to see what kind of effects this new Hardfork 21 is having - and of course, the new new Hardfork 22.

There are several basic goals of the Hardfork(s) in my opinion and they lean toward building Steem Power mass on the blockchain by encouraging powering up for curation, redirecting the flow of Steem from the inflation pool through incentivizing the 7-day negotiation period and, creating a development fund to encourage innovation and initiatives of various kinds.

Whether staked user or looking to earn, pretty much everyone wants the price if Steem to increase because the higher it goes, the more both groups stand to benefit as a staked vote that delivers 1 Steem today is worth 16 cents, if Steem was worth 5 dollars, that same vote of would carry a 5 dollar tag. Higher Steem prices affect all groups on Steem.

To get a higher price and maintain it, there has to be demand for Steem and enough scarcity that there is more demand than what is on offer on the market. This requires a fair bit of development and a whole range of processes to align, but I think we are on the right track.

This is the current supply of STEEM with the bottom number being the virtual supply if all SBD was converted to Steem at this moment.

This is the vesting fund of all STEEM powered up.

It is this amount that creates the Resource Credits, it is this stake that does almost all of the distribution of the inflation pool through staked voting and, it is this amount that would take 13 weeks to fully powerdown and leave the chain empty. And it is this amount that we are looking to increase as it creates market scarcity and if we can generate demand for Steem, price should increase. At the moment, about 40% of the STEEM supply is liquid.

If my memory serves me correctly, the interesting thing is that although Steemit Inc has been powering down something like 400,000 Steem a week for many months, this number has been pretty solidly around the 200,000,000 vested mark. The lowest I think I have seen was 198M a few months ago. My memory isn't great and I do not know how to check total vesting history.

About 8 hours ago I sent a message in Discord to a friend about keeping an eye on this number and at that point it was:

200,059,729

While this doesn't mean anything by itself, it just shows that in the last 8 hours, almost 40,000 Steem has been powered up either through payouts or people actually clicking that ominous and much avoided "Power Up" link.

 
 

WARNING: THE NEXT IMAGE CONTAINS GRAPHIC CONTENT

 
 
 

 
 
 

It is okay. You can open your eyes again.

So, if things are going well there would be both demand for Steem on the markets where there is something like 100 Million floating loose and, demand to power up the other 30-odd million that is liquid in wallets around the place to gain access to the inflation pool. If all goes well, there would be more voting stake drawing on the pool and, your vote would be worth, less.

Less?!? WTF?

The more voting stake there is drawing on the inflation pool, the more thinly it gets spread as the amount in the pool is what the amount in the pool is. For example, if Steemit Inc started voting with the 28 million in the @steemit account, everyone else's votes would decrease about 15%. However, if there is demand for Steem, the value of that Steem would go up and if it is then moving into staked territory, the scarcity would kick in and it would go up again.

For a thought experiment. If all the Steem was powered up except one, what would be the price of that last liquid Steem?

So, the process of changing the price of Steem is reliant on Supply and Demand and at the moment, there is a great deal of supply and demand is too low because, that Steem is still unbought. However, it is still being traded daily and while demand is not high, about 4 million Steem changed hands in the last 24 hours.

The current HF incentivizes powering STEEM up as there is the 50/50 curation and the ability to return 25% additionally back into the pool for redirection through downvotes. On top of this there is the convergent curve that should favor larger voters and the SteemDAO that is a stake-based, community-directed development fund. For those like me who might be looking to buy into a project that has a great deal of potential, now is a pretty good time because demand is low.

Risk of loss is higher at this point of course but, I would rather lose 100 Euros on buying 600 Steem, than 100 Euros on buying 60 Steem. That is the difference between the price now and the price at 1.50. When market sentiment shifts and demand increases so will price and that will mean, less purchasing power if using fiat. If using another crypto it might be okay if the other increases at the same or more of a rate against Steem. But using another crypto means, having another crypto and be willing to use it, in the same way that using Fiat means having fiat to spare.

Now in the time I have written this, the vesting fund has become:

Another 3000 Steem Power.

I suspect that over the next few weeks there will be some powering down from a few of the flagged accounts.

And I have also noticed that they have been much quieter on the sends to bidbots today and yesterday which means, a touch more in the pool to be distributed to other people and, perhaps even some of it relatively organically.

Now, I don't care too much what you do with your Steem today, or tomorrow and perhaps next week you will have no Steem at all. It is your Steem, you can do what you want with it.

For me, I think there is a long way to go for the Steem story and huge amount of potential for everyone who takes part and that means, I am going to participate in reaching various goals I think are important. More staked Steem, compelling development and lastly, attracting new users who just wanna have some Cindy Lauper fun. While many seem to find it difficult to be on Steem, I think this Steem thing is easy. What makes anything painful is when people have expectations and tie their emotions to having them met. But;

You do you, I do me and the outcomes will be what they be.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]

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Great look at this and I agree...there’s tons of positive things to look towards. I bought and Powered up some more this week. I’ll continue to do so in chunks and should hit my goal I set for myself this year.

There is a lot of FUD around but at the end of the day, there always will be in a group such as this in an industry such as this. Kiss the value goodbye at the door in and then if there is a loss, it has already been accepted. All upside from that point.

Thanks for all of the visuals that explain what you are talking about. I find that helpful.

From a long term perspective, I hope we look back at HF21 fondly. I hope necessary changes are made that improve the overall health of the Steem community.

My concern is that small accounts (and I am including myself, even though I am a dolphin) felt a bit of a gut punch yesterday. My payouts since HF21 (even before the 50/50 distribution) dropped by at least half. I know that people need to hold SP and that is why I have purchased chunks of SP over the years, in additional to creator and curation rewards.

I just can't see how an account starting from zero will choose to stay unless a big patron comes in and provides a large amount of support. It will be really hard to progress without buying some steem.

Sorry for rambling. Just some thoughts as I process all of the changes.

  ·  6 months ago (edited)

The visuals help me too but I hold most of them in my head by now so I forget to add them often.

Small accounts will hopefully never see steem a eventually and will only be on the SMTs and the like. From there they won't need to buy anything, just join and have fun.

This is why steem isn't ready for mass adoption, it needs the foundation built first.

I see SCOT and SMT as the future as well. It is just interesting, because like you said, the foundation is still being built.

I see Steem becoming the investor focused side of the community (delegating SP to dApps, delegating resource credits, etc) and with there being general communities (like Palnet, Bilpcoin, etc) and niche communities (like SteemLeo, SonicGroove, CreativeCoin, etc) emerging as the customer facing side of the larger community.

It is amazing that we are watching this all emerge. I completely agree that later on users will connect at the community UI and token level.

Steem has so many facets and layers that it connect at with different groups and over time, more ill arrive through the development and potential connectors to other communities and platforms. Lots to be amazed at here and while nothing is certain, participation is still the key.

I’m excited for the future. I played it conservatively when necessary and aggressive when I could. I’ve made my initial investment back and am sitting well on a decent 3,500 SP. I wouldn’t mind grabbing more Steem but I’m trying to see what the fall does to the price of crypto. Hoping bitcoin comes down to a better level to make another buying season possible for me. For me it’s just fun chatting with folks here, learning things when I can and seeing what goes down.

For me it’s just fun chatting with folks here, learning things when I can and seeing what goes down.

For those that are just looking to maximize, they miss this part of it and with no connection to the community, it isn't much of an experience.

Two days back when I had some liquid steems in my wallet I bought some delegated sp from blocktrades instead of directly powering up. Obviously, I'm concentrating more on powering up and be of any use to the community. Hope the demand increases hence the price!

Would be nice if the price increases for all those who have been working away quietly here.

I have been holding on to more liquid Steem lately although I am powering up 100% of my posts as well to try some different things and feed my Splinterlands addiction! However, I think my next purchase will go directly to SP to get over that 25k goal I had for the year!

I have some liquids as well, but I am unsure what i will do with them yet. I have bought a great deal (for me) and powered up in the last year, so I don't mind having a bit free to play with if the opportunity arises. However, I might just power it up and get it back in a week powerdown if I need.

I do not know how to check total vesting history.

It’s far from a complete record, but @minnowbuilder5 did several posts earlier this year recording the statistics at various points in time.

Thanks, will have a look through :)

  ·  6 months ago (edited)

Why is the power up link much avoided? o_O I'm impatiently waiting to magic number so I can hit it but I might be waiting a while XD

Some people seem to think it carries the plague ;D

You got a 64.98% upvote from @ocdb courtesy of @tarazkp!

@ocdb is a non-profit bidbot for whitelisted Steemians, current min bid is 2 SBD and max bid is 18 SBD and the equivalent amount in STEEM.
Check our website https://thegoodwhales.io/ for the whitelist, queue and delegation info. Join our Discord channel for more information.

If you like what @ocd does, consider voting for ocd-witness through SteemConnect or on the Steemit Witnesses page. :)

I think this is key:

What makes anything painful is when people have expectations and tie their emotions to having them met.

We should expect to work hard, we should calculate the probability of success, act to improve what can in our favor and be resigned to not really knowing the outcome, good or bad. And...

This Steem journey is like life, it’s not a goal or destination, it’s a journey, we should enjoy the ride.