The Real Impact Of Technology On JobssteemCreated with Sketch.

in SteemLeo •  15 days ago 

It is easy to read statistics and forecasts about the impact of technology on jobs. Many projections are made with the impact, obviously, still being unknown. Personally, I am one who is in the camp that it will be worse than people think.

Here is a comment that was left on Reddit that struck me.

jobs.png

This shows a real world impact of robotics that is taking place in the next four months. Notice how much of an impact one device is having. This single installation will eliminate 16 jobs with a payback of only 9 months. That means the company is in a positive position on the transaction in less than a year.

Here is what the devices look like from the company website.

Source

Of course, 16 jobs does not sound like that many but the question is how many of these robots are going to be sold. If they sell 5,000 of them, that is 80,000 jobs if this is the normal replacement ratio.

And with that ROI, why wouldn't any company out there do exactly that?

From a jobs perspective, sadly this is taking place all over the world. Whether those jobs are going to replaced with better ones is not the real debate, at least to the people affected. It is unlikely that the workers that are being replaced here are going to find something similar, especially if the economy takes a dive. The companies are better insulted against a recession since they are doing what they can to reduce payroll before it happens.

The manufacturing sector has seen this taking place for 30 years. Look at the automobile industry to compare the difference in the past to today.

Look ma, no people.


Source

The United States is at an all time high in manufacturing output. At the same time, it is down 1.25 million workers meaning a lot more output with a lot less people.

Unfortunately, robotics is not the only game in town. Aspects of AI are going to do to the white collar world what robotics did to the blue collar. The difference I see is the speed. It is a lot easier to design an algorithm than it is to get the dexterity of a robot correct.

Over the next year, we are likely to see a wave of automation in the retail sector. Cashier-less checkout and robotic floor cleaners are becoming the norm. There will be other advancements that catch people by surprise.

The overall challenge is the deflationary rate of IT products. We are seeing the cost of these technologies dropping like a rock in a pond. This pace, which is likely to accelerate, takes out another batch of workers.

As we see, one robot system eliminates 16 jobs.

It is a trend that is only growing.


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You are right, but this is the downside of technology. This means there would be more hunger in the near future as front desk jobs and seemingly menial jobs get lost to robots. I'm currently consulting for a research in "Human hand kinematics for holding". The aim is to study the movements of the human hand when holding things in a typical production line. The end would result in designing robots to replace operators here in Nigeria.

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You have a first hand look at the potential of what is coming.

Fortunately, there are options out there for people. It is one of the reasons that cryptocurrency needs to take off.

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Let me learn from you. How would crytocurrency help this?

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Cryptocurrency is a way for people to earn. If we do see areas that are majorly affected by technological unemployment, they will have a fall back option. Think about people getting paid to play games, post content, use a web browser, or an assortment of other ways they can be rewarded.

If we see a massive push in the number of people involved, the network effect will propel those tokens that have activity to great heights. This means that people could, at least potentially, offset the loss of income from the job eradication.

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Now I see your point. It is sad that adoption rate is poor. Many around laugh at me to scorn out of their ignorance when I tell them about steem. All they think bitcoin is a ponzi.

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"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win”

People will find out about the value of cryptocurrency, sooner or later. For most, sadly, it is going to be later.

In marketing, it takes an average of 7 contacts before one remembers the name of a company. It is a matter of keep going and building upon what is here. The more the entire ecosystem has to offer, the better it will be when people do arrive here.

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i think the negative effect that technology have on jobs is that very soon less humans will be required to do a job and that will lead to some massive loss of jobs....

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But very sad that many are yet to wake to this reality to update themselves alongside with technology in order not to become obselete.

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That is very likely, at least in the short to medium term. Job eradication is going to go at a faster pace than the replacement of them in my opinion.

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I feel sorry for my daughters generation, I better push her into a job that requires creativity.

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that is the best thing to do right now....

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Or get her involved in cryptocurrency and get to the point where she has a nice stream of income coming in from that resource.

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More jobs will be created than destroyed. Yes, people will have to adjust but that is how it has always been. There has been a lot of research into this subject but the result is always the same. The fact that technology makes people obsolete is a myth.

This is a very dangerous presumption. The past does not always equal the future.

There has been a lot of research into this subject but the result is always the same

There is as much research done into the subject that shows the exact opposite.

I think you are ignoring a few key points.

  1. Pace of technological change is unprecedented while not only affecting blue collar jobs, but also white collar.
  2. The jobs skills were rather simple when switching from agriculture to industrial. To go from a service society to a digital one is requiring skills that most people dont have.
  3. You are presuming the jobs created in the future will be created for humans.
  4. We are in a corporatocracy where the largest companies in the world consume most of the spending. Their goal is not to employ people but to garner a ROI.

It is possible the past repeats itself although, with the pace of innovation, it is highly unlikely. Look at the latest job reports and see where the growth is. The three biggest job creators are education, healthcare, and construction.

All three are under major attack from innovation.

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